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Estimating Electronic System Costs For Future Projects Posted By: SPW68

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In the early 1980s, the U.S. Air Force found that it needed to be able to predict he flight test costs (one of eight cost predictions required for a full estimate) of electronic warfare systems such as radar warning receivers, electronic countermeasure radiating devices, and chaff dispensers. This task was an exceptionally difficult one due not only to the rapid technological advancements being made in the electronics field, but particularly because the estimates had to be made up to six years before the equipment would incur those costs; that is, even before the system was conceptualised or defined. Cost estimating approaches based on estimating the costs of the system components could not be used because the components were often not even identified six years beforehand. Sometimes the only data available was the nature of the enemy system to be countered, or possibly, only the general type of equipment to be used. Thus, an approach was used based in independent variables with strong casual links to the dependant variable of interest, the flight test cost.

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